OSUN SENATORIAL ELECTION AND NIGERIA'S NEW POLITICAL CULTURE

By Omen Bassey

The Independent National Electoral Commission(INEC)  has declared Mr Ademola Adeleke winner of the just
concluded Osun West Senatorial District bye election.

Beyond the joy of triumph and the anguish of defeat from the different camps, I believe there are useful
lessons to be learnt from the outcome of the contest, especially by political leaders and party stalwarts.

Nigerian Governors, in particular are fond of living with a false sense of ownership, invincibility and "almightiness".

The first lesson here is the reinforcement of what started in 2015 when Nigerians announced in no uncertain terms
that political leaders can only take them for granted at their peril.

Also embedded in the outcome of the Osun election is an unmistakable message that in today’s Nigeria, winning your Party's ticket may be a wasted
achievement if the people do not want you.

The era of a Party's flag seemingly concluding an electoral process ended in 2015 when President Goodluck Jonathan couldn't be sworn- in with the much needed Party's ticket in his pocket.
I had earlier written on Nigeria's evolving political culture of enlightened, assertive and independent minded electorates made possible by social media. Unfortunately, the average Nigerian is very slow at embracing change.

It's possible the Governor of Osun State, Mr Rauf Aregbesola is one of those who believe that we are still in
the pre 2015 Nigeria. The events of 2015 and the global impact of the Internet have combined to leave Nigeria
with activist electorates.

And the people, especially members of the younger generation who constitute a very influential segment of the electorates seem to find pleasure in this new role.

The amount of information(both genuine and fake) available to people at the grassroots has helped to whittle down the influence of political elites.

As far as I'm concerned, the victory of Adeleke has nothing to do with the strength or weakness of the political parties. It also has little to do with the
performance or otherwise of Aregbesola. It has everything to do with going into battle with the right or wrong captain.

For me, Aregbesola was the greatest
enabler of the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) in the election.Today's electorates rightly believe that the
captain in any electoral contest is the candidate.

In otherwords, we have shifted from a party focused political culture to a candidate focused one.In that case, only
political parties with populist inclination can make appreciable electoral impact in our new political environment.

Unknown to most political leaders, the
people have seized power. Why do we expect the people to vote for a comparatively unpopular candidate simply because he belongs to the
right political party or because he enjoys the backing of the right people? Will the political party or the supporters do the work for him? That method used to work in the past.

But things have changed.There's absolutely no argument about the fact that Adeleke would still have won resoundingly flying the flag of the All Progressives Congress(APC).

So, if you ask me, I would say that
Governor Aregbesola gave away APC's victory.

Recall that Adeleke defected from the All Progressives Congress(APC) to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP )
shortly before the bye- election. In fact, he was the leading aspirant in the APC until he was convinced that the Governor was bent on imposing his Commissioner for Home Affairs, Mr Mudashiru Hussein on the Party.

In recognition of the man's popularity and wide acceptability, the Peoples Democratic Party( PDP) quickly made its original aspirants to step down for a man who was clearly preferred by the electorates.

THAT WAS THE DAY
THE ELECTION WAS WON AND LOST. Yesterday's
contest was a mere investiture of "Senator" Ademola Adeleke.

The big question is, of what consequence is a ticket that is rejected by the electorates? Wouldn't it be better for
APC to have a Senator who isn't the Governor's boy than lose the election to the opposition? Obviously, this error has raised the stakes higher for the APC in Osun State as the gubernatorial election of 2018 draws closer.

I don't care what you think about the administration of Aregbesola. That would have had very little or no impact on the chances of a well received candidate like Adeleke.

Our political leaders should stop thinking that their influence will keep winning elections for underdogs against
stronger candidates in rival parties. That idea of "Because of me, they will vote for him" has its limits.

In today's Nigeria, the electorates are well informed and most Nigerians don't belong to political parties. There's
no political party that can win election with only the votes of its members.

So, a candidate which can appeal
to his party members, non partisan electorates and even members of the rival political parties will prove an asset
in any election.

Worse still, disregard for the wishes of the People as in the case of Osun State will even end up alienating the party from its own members. The result can only be
electoral defeat.

Prior to the 2015 presidential election, former President Goodluck Jonathan was able to silent every voice of dissent within his party. He successfully emerged the sole presidential aspirant of the party but he couldn't extend the feat to the General Election.

He had to face the electorates with that ticket and the rest, they say, is history. Among those who worked against him and contributed significantly to his defeat were disenchanted and disgruntled members of his party.

All the efforts to win the ticket was ultimately fruitless. He probably would
have enjoyed a better outing in the general election if he submitted himself to internal democratic processes of the
party.

I'm sure some members of the APC who preferred Adeleke ended up voting for the PDP by voting for their
preferred candidate, Adeleke.
Who do we blame?